Twilight in America?
Veterans of the US Navy are fond of saying that you can’t turn an aircraft carrier on a dime. Aircraft carriers are massive ships with tremendous inertia. This inertia can make it difficult to change their course quickly.
The same can be said of nation states, particularly when considering their long-term strategy for national and economic security. For 75 years, from 1949 through 2024, our allies in Europe and Asia have strategically relied on America as the ultimate guarantor of their national security and, therefore, in large measure their economic security. This has been an enormously successful strategy, and our allies have been understandably cautious about changing course.
In 2017-2020, President Trump-45 caused great concern for our European and Asian allies, but they did not fundamentally change course on their national and economic security strategies. This was because they had reasonable confidence that the leadership of both the Republican and Democratic parties remained committed to America’s indispensable role in the world. They breathed a sigh of relief in November 2020, when Joe Biden was elected President. With the events of 6 January 2021, they concluded that Trump was a spent force politically.
Now, with President Trump-47 ascendant and assertive, our European and Asian allies are in despair about America’s future. Accordingly, they have begun revising their strategic planning for national and economic security. Trump-47 has encouraged them to do so. They have to hedge their bets. They are changing course. And since they cannot change course quickly, they will continue down this path for some time no matter what the results of the 2026 mid-term elections and the 2028 presidential elections in the US.
No nation can go it alone in today’s world. This reluctant change of strategic course by our friends will damage America’s position in the world for at least a decade. It is what Vladimir Putin has been predicting.
I expect that the Europeans will be successful in figuring out an independent strategy for dealing with Russia which, aside from its nuclear arsenal, has proven unimpressive in conventional military capability and is quite fragile in economic terms. I am less sure that our Asian allies can find a successful strategy for dealing with China, which is formidable in economic and conventional military capabilities and rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. If left on their own, our Asian allies may eventually have no choice but to accommodate China’s rising power to America’s detriment.
…………………………………….. (For more, please check out my website above!) ………………………
It’s rare that one finds such truth, and such wisdom. Thank you for sharing.
I rarely post a response, there’s soo much to respond to and it’s difficult to see the truth in this day and age. you’ve shared something which we should all ponder. I wish that your words will also cause others to stop, to listen, to basically do as another great leader has done, I also hope not just for me, not just for my home, not just for my child, nor just for this moment, our world needs to stop and listen to folks like You who’s desire is to make a difference, and to ask, but
More so to correct before it’s too late.
Again, Thank you.
From a former Marine, an Emergency Responder and a current father concerned about what’s happening. And afraid of what kind of world my child will live in.
Forgive my adding this AI supported reference, it, like you is on point and we need more to do so.
"Doveryai, no proveryai,"
The phrase "trust but verify" means that while one should approach a situation with trust, it's still important to confirm the information or actions being taken, especially in situations where there is potential for risk or error. It emphasizes the importance of due diligence and caution, even when dealing with trusted individuals or sources.
The phrase is famously attributed to Ronald Reagan, who used it during negotiations with the Soviet Union in the 1980s regarding nuclear arms treaties. It originates from a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai," which translates to "Trust, but verify," according to Centripetal Networks, Wikipedia, and LBM Journal. This proverb was used by Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin before Reagan adopted it.
In essence, "trust but verify" means:
Approaching situations with a degree of trust: This fosters positive relationships and facilitates collaboration.
Performing checks and confirmations: This ensures accuracy, prevents mistakes, and mitigates potential risks.
Essentially, it's a balance between faith and prudence. It's a reminder that even with trust, it's wise to double-check information and not solely rely on someone's word.
Thank you for your service and commitment.